When LLM's come up with answers to questions that aren't directly exampled in the training data, that's not proof at all that it reasoned its way there — it can very much still be pattern matching without insight from the actual code execution of the answer generation.

If we were taking a walk and you asked me for an explanation for a mathematical concept I have not actually studied, I am fully capable of hazarding a casual guess based on the other topics I have studied within seconds. This is the default approach of an LLM, except with much greater breadth and recall of studied topics than I, as a human, have.

This would be very different than if we sat down at a library and I applied the various concepts and theorems I already knew to make inferences, built upon them, and then derived an understanding based on reasoning of the steps I took (often after backtracking from several reasoning dead ends) before providing the explanation.

If you ask an LLM to explain their reasoning, it's unclear whether it just guessed the explanation and reasoning too, or if that was actually the set of steps it took to get to the first answer they gave you. This is why LLMs are able to correct themselves after claiming strawberry has 2 rs, but when providing (guessing again) their explanations they make more "relevant" guesses.

I'm not sure what "just guessed" means here. My experience with LLMs is that their "guesses" are far more reliable than a human's casual guess. And, as you say, they can provide cogent "explanations" of their "reasoning." Again, you say they might be "just guessing" at the explanation, what does that really mean if the explanation is cogent and seems to provide at least a plausible explanation for the behavior? (By the way, I'm sure you know that plenty of people think that human explanations for their behavior are also mere narrative reconstructions.)

I don't have a strong view about whether LLMS are really reasoning -- whatever that might mean. But the point I was responding to is that LLMS have simply memorized all the answers. That is clearly not true under any normal meanings of those words.

How do you know it’s a novel question?

You have probably seen examples of LLMs doing the "mirror test", i.e. identifying themselves in screenshots and referring to the screenshot from the first person. That is a genuinely novel question as an "LLM mirror test" wasn't a concept that existed before about a year ago.

The question isn't about universal novelty, but whether the prompt/context is novel enough such that the LLM answering competently demonstrates understanding. The claim of parroting is that the dataset contains a near exact duplicate of any prompt and so the LLM demonstrating what appears to be competence is really just memorization. But if an LLM can generalize from an elephant mirror test to an LLM mirror test in an entirely new context (showing pictures and being asked to describe it), that demonstrates sufficient generalization to "understand" the concept of a mirror test.

How do you know it’s the one generalizing?

Likely there has been at least one text that already does that for say dolphin mirror tests or chimpanzee mirror teats.

It's not exactly difficult to come up with a question that's so unusual the chance of it being in the training set is effectively zero.

And as any programmer will tell you: they immediately devolve into "hallucinating" answers, not trying to actually reason about the world. Because that's what they do: they create statistically plausible answers even if those answers are complete nonsense.

Can you provide some examples of these genuinely unique questions?

I'm not sure what you mean by "genuinely." But in the coding context LLMs answer novel questions all the time. My codebase uses components and follows patterns that an LLM will have seen before, but the actual codebase is unique. Yet, the LLM can provide detailed explanations about how it works, what bugs or vulnerabilities it might have, modify it, or add features to it.

It must not have existed prior in any text database whatsoever.

It certainly wasn't. The codebase is thousands of lines of bespoke code that I just wrote.

Which pretty much every line in it was written similarly somewhere else before, including an explanation and is somehow included in the massive data set it was trained on.

So far i have asked the AI some novel questions and it came up with novel answers full of hallucinated nonsense, since it copied some similarly named setting or library function and replaced a part of it's name with something i was looking for.

And this training data somehow includes an explanation of how these individual lines (with variable names unique to my application) work together in my unique combination to produce a very specific result? I don't buy it.

And...

> pretty much

Is it "pretty much" or "all"? The claim that the LLM simply has simply memorized all of its responses seems to require "all."